In CAPRI’s first event of 2023 with the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, Matt Pottinger and Yen Pottinger discussed the successes, failures, and continuing challenges in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. When CAPRI’s international team assembled in 2021 to conduct research on the post-pandemic world order, many people worldwide believed that we had reached a turning point in the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccine coverage was increasing in many countries, domestic restrictions were beginning to loosen, and international trade and travel began to recover. However, the world has since learned that COVID-19 is not so easily managed. We now know that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, can rapidly evolve, becoming more transmissible and evading the protection of vaccines. As governments were attempting to balance protecting public health and enabling normal economic and social life, CAPRI organized this event to explore whether the lessons from the pandemic were being applied across all areas of public policy.

Prof. Syaru Shirley Lin of CAPRI began the discussion by asking what China’s rapid dismantling of COVID-19 restrictions meant for the fourth year of the pandemic. Matt Pottinger, former US Deputy National Security Advisor, recognized the efforts by doctors and journalists in China to communicate with the world about the mysterious illness that would become known as COVID-19. Dr. Yen Pottinger, a virologist and technical laboratory advisor at Columbia University who has advised the US Centers for Disease Control and many governments’ ministries of health, observed that China had insufficiently prepared for its reopening over the last three years. “China’s COVID story is still playing out…there was little preparation for this period, unfortunately.”

In late 2022, CAPRI contributed research to Brookings’ Democracy in Asia Project on the role of democratic institutions and political culture in responding to pandemics. On that topic, Matt Pottinger offered insights he gained while working in government. “There is a tendency in all societies to assume that political decision-making is an obstacle to letting experts lead the response to a crisis. This is the wrong model.” Pointing out where policy decisions diverged from expert advice at the beginning of the pandemic, he argued that the political process lends legitimacy and flexibility to policy in the face of an unknown threat. Yen Pottinger added that public health experts and epidemiologists could rely only on their previous knowledge to advise governments and communicate with the public. “The scientists acted on what they thought they knew at the time; as the situation changes, we have to change our advice to the public.” Even though the US had spent billions of dollars preparing for a variety of pandemics, Dr. Pottinger noted that “for a fast-moving respiratory virus, everything we knew didn’t work.”

Noting Taiwan’s success in controlling the spread of COVID-19 early in the pandemic, Mr. Pottinger called for Taiwan’s participation in a new coalition of countries that would lead the world in pandemic response by sharing information and standards that complement the work of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Regarding the origin of SARS-CoV-2, Mr. Pottinger said that it is unlikely that China will provide transparency on its definitive origin. Dr. Pottinger added that the virus could have originated in bats, researched upon, and accidentally leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan. “We know it’s a lab leak or a zoonotic origin, so we should prepare for both.” As more countries realize the importance of viral research, global standards are needed to ensure that laboratories stay safe.

After the moderated panel, the Pottingers took several questions from the audience. Prof. Chang-Chuan Chan, one of CAPRI’s board of directors and former dean of the College of Public Health at National Taiwan University, asked why Taiwan’s success in controlling the pandemic during its earlier phase could not be maintained. Dr. Pottinger answered that each country was successful at different times. However, the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant made it difficult for all countries to confront the pandemic. “In that first phase, Taiwan’s reaction and the way you handled the pandemic was, in fact, what was best for your population,” shared Dr. Pottinger. She also addressed the question by Prof. Harry Harding, also on CAPRI’s board, about lessons learned from the pandemic, referencing CAPRI’s 2021 research on inequitable vaccine distribution and a lack of diversity in manufacturing locations that drove the spread of the pandemic, with some countries unable to get effective COVID vaccines on time.

A journalist asked Mr. Pottinger if his call for a new global health body, which would exclude authoritarian regimes, would create a divide in global decision-making that could leave out the developing world. Mr. Pottinger clarified that this body would support all countries and have the necessary tools and expertise to respond to pandemics. A student asked Dr. Pottinger how governments should decide which factors to prioritize during a public health crisis, to which she shared that the priority should be what gives the public the best information presented clearly and concisely. She also stressed the importance of cooperation between national and local governments, alongside community leaders, to ensure effective messaging.