民進黨繼續執政 但民意基礎減弱

Syaru Shirley Lin and other Brookings scholars assess the Taiwan election results and what they mean for the island, cross-Strait relations, and the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle in 2024 and beyond.

From The Impact of Taiwan’s Election in 2024 and beyond, Brookings Institution, January 17, 2024

On January 13, 2024, the DPP’s Lai Ching-te and Bi-khim Hsiao were elected as Taiwan’s next president and vice president with a small 40% plurality. As expected, the DPP lost control of the legislature, holding on to only 51 of the total 113 seats, but no party gained a majority; the KMT won 52 seats, the TPP eight, and independent candidates two. This produced a limited presidential mandate and divided parliament, with profound implications for how Taiwan will negotiate with the United States and China.

Both opposition parties proposed closer economic ties with China. The DPP will propose more defense spending and deeper security ties with the United States. However, very little can be accomplished because the three parties disagree on these issues. The opposition parties also vowed to restart nuclear power generation, which the DPP has traditionally opposed. The generational divide is deep, as both the KMT and DPP appealed to older voters, while the TPP won backing from young supporters. Domestic issues such as high housing prices, energy security, wage stagnation, and healthcare reform may produce coalitions on an issue-specific basis, but we should expect a stalemate on foreign and cross-Strait policy. Beijing will continue to threaten Taipei militarily and diplomatically, although it will exercise restraint leading up to the U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, the United States will continue to squeeze Taiwan on technology and defense. In short, Taiwan will have to navigate a dangerous world while plagued by internal division and a weak government.

關於作者
Syaru Shirley Lin

Chair, Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation

產業依賴、能源短缺與軍費縮減:特朗普回歸後台灣的韌性考驗

在美中戰略競爭與全球經濟分裂加劇的背景下,台灣面臨產業依賴、國防預算與能源安全的挑戰,如何在特朗普回歸後維持長期韌性,成為當前最關鍵的課題。本文源於作者黃思爲與費凱琳 (Caroline Fried) 於英國諾丁漢大學台灣研究中心 (Taiwan Research Hub, University of Nottingham) 發表的政策論文 “Anchoring Taiwan’s Future during Trump 2.0: Building Resilience from Within.”

亞太的民主發展與社會韌性

亞太地區正在面臨各種政經體制上帶來的社會挑戰,在人口老化貧富不均、氣候變遷及政治極化等困境逐步逼近下,亞太社會又該如何培養社會韌性?本會工作論文以亞太視角進行比較性研究,探究社會韌性不同政治體制的關係。