In celebration of CAPRI’s fourth anniversary on May 26, 2026, CAPRI welcomed Minxin Pei, professor at Claremont McKenna College, for a conversation with CAPRI supporters and representatives of academia, nonprofits, and political and diplomatic offices in Taiwan. Drawing on his new book, The Broken China Dream: How Reform Revived Totalitarianism, Prof. Pei discussed the evolution of US–China engagement into what he characterized as a “new Cold War.” He described the changing dynamic between the two powers as “the most rapid shift in the global balance of power in history.”
The discussion focused on Xi Jinping’s framing of US–China relations as a potential Thucydides Trap, a popular concept in foreign policy commentary that describes how war is likely when a rising power is perceived as threatening an existing one. Xi has invoked this phrase repeatedly since 2014 when interacting with US officials, most recently during his high-profile summit with Trump in May 2026. Prof. Pei argued that China must bear some responsibility for digging this trap, highlighting its increasingly aggressive actions on the global stage since Xi came to power.
While this trend has become more pronounced and ideological under Xi, Prof. Pei traced its origins decades earlier to the reform era spearheaded by Deng Xiaoping. Although the openly stated foreign policy ambitions of Chinese officials have remained consistent since this time, only recently has the US begun to take their words seriously. This shift, according to Prof. Pei, mirrors China’s transition from relatively restrained to more expansive on the world stage, including actions such as its Belt and Road Initiative and posture toward Taiwan.
A lively Q&A session following Prof. Pei’s remarks centered on US–China technological competition, the Trump–Xi summit, and implications for Taiwan. Addressing whether China’s totalitarian system will stifle the advancement of its tech sector, Prof. Pei noted that China has sufficient investment capacity, talent, and information access to continue narrowing the gap with the US; however, this gap will persist in the near future. China is the foremost global supplier of rare minerals critical for technological applications, which could boost its leverage over the US in this domain, although the US retains leverage in other sectors, such as finance.
Prof. Pei also advised the next generation of China scholars navigating an increasingly closed research environment, particularly the inability to conduct fieldwork in China, encouraging them to identify other valuable data sources they can access, such as the central government’s annual statistical yearbook, before formulating their research design.
The conversation concluded with a return to what US–China geopolitical rivalry means for Taiwan. Responding to questions on how Trump’s presidency factors into US–China–Taiwan relations, Prof. Pei noted that Chinese officials view US arms sales to Taiwan as a political rather than simply military issue that signals closer engagement. He emphasized the role of the US in conflict deterrence despite shakeups to regional policy under the Trump Administration and warned that domestic factors influencing Chinese expansionism should not be underestimated: “The ‘China dream’ could be a Taiwanese nightmare.”
